Posted by
Stefano on Sunday, July 27, 2008 12:36:26 AM
We’ve all heard about the famous tulip bubble back in the 1600’s and of course the Tech bubble at the beginning of this century. Most recently we’ve experienced the housing bubble. What they have in common is that each bubble resulted in the economic crash of its over inflated market. Back in January, 2001, AOL bought and merged with Time Warner. After the merger, shareholders in AOL received more shares in the new company than the shareholders in Time Warner recieved. AOL had made a timely trade of their stock at a point close to the top of the tech bubble. Two years later AOL Time Warner took a 99 billion dollar write off due to the devaluation of the assets that AOL had brought to the merger. The CEO of AOL, Steve Case, had, in retrospect, pulled off the first big deal (steal?) of the 21st century by trading over inflated AOL stock for the truly valuable stock of Time Warner.
The bubble I’m thinking about today isn’t economic, but it has things in common with an economic bubble. It’s a “commodity” that has a word of mouth buzz about it. Its market value has been bid up far beyond its underlying value. The underlying fundamentals of the “commodity” are characterized by a lot of hot air and not much foundation, and the “commodity” hasn’t been around for very long. Although stock of the commodity has a low intrinsic value, an army of salesmen is attempting to convert this overinflated stock into a much more valuable position. It is reminiscent of the AOL –Time Warner merger. The “commodity”, of course, is the expected Democrat nominee, and the valuable position is the presidency.
I’ve heard economists declare that all bubbles eventually burst and that over inflated stocks always come down in price. The big question is how long can the main stream media and the Democrat hot air machine keep the Obama bubble inflated? This is probably just wishful thinking, and I don’t have much of anything to base it on, but the Obama bubble could be about to burst. After all of the favorable press from the fawning media and the over-hyped Obama international tour, Obama has received a bump in the polls. If the bump fades in the coming week, it may mean that Obama fatigue is setting in with the public. Time will tell, but we can have hope that things will change and that the Obama bubble will deflate by November. Now that’s the kind of hope and change that works for me.
Rasmussen daily tracking:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Gallup daily tracking:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109099/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Retains-Lead-48-41.aspx